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FXUS63 KDDC 030758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

VERY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE COLORADO
SLIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS. NW FLOW ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE PLAINS AS
A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND THIS WILL PROTECT US CERTAINLY FROM
PRECIP AND PROBABLY FROM ANY CLOUDS AS WELL. THERE IS A PATCH OF
AC/AS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER ATM, WHICH THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS, BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE,
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE TODAY AND SAT. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE
WITH TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE DIPPED INTO THE 40S IN A NUMBER OF
SPOTS ALREADY AND WITH ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF DARKNESS, THINK MOST
OF SW KS WILL START OUT QUITE CHILLY TODAY. GIVEN THE COOL START,
OUR GOING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOW 80S LOOKS GOOD FOR
TODAY. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND THEN WE
SHOULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST
AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP TO NEAR 90 FROM DODGE
WESTWARD WITH MID 80S TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPTS REMAINING
QUITE LOW, IT WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE TODAY AND SAT. -WRIGHT

DAYS 3-7...

HOT AIR SURGING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA SUNDAY WILL CAUSE NEAR 100F 
READINGS IN A FEW SPOTS. STAYED WITHIN THE COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS 
WITH UPPER 90S IN OUR WESTERN 1/3RD CWA OR SO.  THIS VERY WARM AIR 
IS NOT PROGGED BEYOND SUNDAY, SO MODIFIED MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 
MID 90S FOR MONDAY.   

THE MODELS ARE STILL VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT 
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL SEE THE 
SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE CONNECTED TO THE 
SHORT WAVE.  THUS, SMALL 20 PERCENT POPS ARE WARRANTED FROM MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ACTUAL FRONT IS HARD TO MAKE OUT IN 
THE EXTENDED MODELS, BUT BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE AROUND FROM CONVECTION 
TO OUR NORTH.  THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD EASILY TRIGGER WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT 
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 POPS AT THIS TIME IS NOT REASONABLE.  STILL 
DON'T THINK THURSDAY WILL SEE ANY PRECIP, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW 
STORMS JUST EAST OF OUR CWA IN ICT'S AREA, WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER 
MOISTURE WILL BE RICHER.  SO, KEPT SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA 
TO MATCH ISC GRIDS.  

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP NEARLY 
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSISTING AT ALL TAF SITES 
THROUGH 24 HOURS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  49  87  59 /   0   0   0   0 
GCK  82  48  90  58 /   0   0   0   0 
EHA  82  51  91  58 /   0   0   0   0 
LBL  82  52  91  59 /   0   0   0   0 
HYS  80  50  85  58 /   0   0   0   0 
P28  81  52  84  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FN34/12/12