551 
FXUS63 KDDC 112101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
301 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

A DEEP AND BROAD JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WAS ROUNDING THE 
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH THIS MORNING AS A DEEPLY STACKED CYCLONE WAS IN 
PROGRESS OF LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO 
AROUND NORTHWEST IOWA. THE DEEP LOW IS FORECAST TO RECURVE 
STRAIGHT BACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 

SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX AND STRONGER 
PUSH OF BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ADVECTION OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS, AND 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 
AS THE WAVE CONTINUED SOUTH, MORE STRATIFORM CLOUDS DEVELOPED, AND 
WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, 
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE'VE REMOVED 
ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS FROM THE FORECAST BUT MAINTAIN A MENTION OF 
FLURRIES IN OUR  EASTERN SECTION TONIGHT AS DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMNS 
HAVE THE TOPS INTERSECTING COLDER -5 TO -10 DEG C AIR ON MODEL 
SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF 
AIDED BY ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHEAR ZONES IN THE UPPER 
LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 12 KM NAM INDICATES A MORE 
INTENSE VERSION OF THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 
MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY, AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE POPS FROM HAYS TO 
MEDICINE LODGE. STRENGTHENING OF THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS WESTERN 
KANSAS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS, AND GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS 
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED 
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.       

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT EAST-SOUTHEAST AND EXPAND 
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. 
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY 
DECREASING, BUT ONLY SLOWLY. SATURDAY SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY 
SKIES, WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, 
WHILE WEAK UPSLOPE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WE'VE FORECAST 
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE/MODEL OUTPUT.   


RUSSELL


DAYS 3-7...

THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
EXTENDED WHICH LENDS ITSELF TO REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST 
TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES 
WILL DROP INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE 
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS VERY WEEK RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS OVER 
THE PLAINS. BUT AS WE GET INTO SUN NIGHT AND MON, A WEAK SHORTWAVE 
DROPS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTH. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME 
PRECIP, ESP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THUS THE 15-30 POPS WE HAVE 
GOING CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE. FROM LATE MON THROUGH TUE, THE 
CLOSED LOW DROPS DOWN INTO OLD MEXICO AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE 
NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. WITH NNW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS 
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. 

ON WED, ALL THE MODELS ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND 
DROPPING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS IS NOT A VERY GOOD TRAJECTORY 
FOR PRECIP IN THE PLAINS BUT SOME QPF IS FORECAST IN THE MODELS. I 
DO NOTE THAT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF ALL THE MODELS ARE NOW TO THE 
RIGHT OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS (IE ARE LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE 
S/WAVE) AND THUS AM NOT GOING TO PUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE 
FCST. AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP A RATHER STRONG WESTERN CONUS TROF WITH THE GFS BEING 
PROGRESSIVE AND THE EC MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. THE FCST FOR LATE 
NEXT WEEK IS PERILOUS BECAUSE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN 
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLN VERIFIES. IF THE 
WESTERN TROF DIGS AS MUCH AS THE EC SHOWS, WE COULD BE QUITE WARM 
HERE IN KS. WHEREAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LIKE THE GFS WOULD 
BRING COLDER WEATHER TO KS. THE MODELS HAVE DONE BETTER THAN USUAL 
WITH CLOSED LOWS THIS SEASON AND THE TREND THIS YEAR WOULD FAVOR THE 
SLOWER EC. BUT THERE IS ALWAYS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH PATTERNS. 
THUS, AM RELUCTANT TO STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. LONGER 
RANGE ENSEMBLES DO SUPPORT AN OUTLOOK FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL 
WEATHER AND THUS I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WK 2 FORECAST OF NORMAL 
PRECIP AND NORMAL/COOLING TREND FOR TEMPS. -WRIGHT

&& 

.AVIATION...

CU HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THIS 
AFTERNOON, BUT IT IS CAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND 050. MARGINAL 
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12/00Z AT KDDC/KGCK AND THEN 
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS OVER ERN 
NE/WRN IA AND IS SLOWLY ROTATING BACK TOWARD THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE 
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS MOVING THROUGH NW KS AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE -SHRASN INVOF KHYS THROUGH 12/00Z. EXPECT BORDERLINE 
MVFR/VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT KHYS OVERNIGHT DUE TO APPROACHING  
UPPER LOW. STRONG NW SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS 
AND INTENSIFY TOMORROW AM AS THE MAIN LOW APPROACHES AND SFC 
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. -WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  53  34  57 /  40  10   0   0 
GCK  31  55  29  59 /  20  10   0   0 
EHA  31  58  28  63 /  10   0   0   0 
LBL  32  59  30  63 /  40  10   0   0 
HYS  32  49  33  53 /  20  30   0   0 
P28  38  55  36  57 /  40  20   0   0 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FN33/34