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Waterford, Michigan (48327)
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Friday, September 3 2:23 PM
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County:
Oakland
Wx Zone:
MIZ069
Fire Zone:
MIZ069
Forecast Office: KDTX
FIPS: 026125
Radar: KDTX
Lat: 42.66N Lon: 83.39W
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| Waterford, MI Area Forecast Discussion: |
Powered By: MichiganWxSystemdata |
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391
FXUS63 KDTX 031741
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
141 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
.AVIATION...
DEEP LAYER MIXING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT DURING THE EVENING...BUT
STILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FEED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCT-BKN SKY COVER...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL POOL OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. FORECAST MODELS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM WISCONSIN
SUPPORT CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN BY LATE EVENING...THEN LASTING INTO MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MIXING ALLOWS CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR. SHOWER POTENTIAL
ACROSS MICHIGAN TONIGHT LOOKS GREATEST IN AREAS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE EVERYWHERE.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED SHOWERS IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER SINCE THE
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW. WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
SHORT TERM...TODAY
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAPIDLY WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAD BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING AROUND A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CORRESPONDING DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTING TODAY.
THE ASSOCIATED INITIAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. ELONGATED
AXIS OF HIGHER PRE-FRONTAL LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AIR IN THE PRESENCE
OF INCREASING CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE RAPIDLY
ADVANCING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT BRINGS A QUICK END TO ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN COMMENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. A PERIOD SUFFICENT POST-FRONTAL LOW TO MID LEVEL DRYING
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN...
HELPING TO COUNTER THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY TO MID 70S OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR /PORT HURON TO MONROE/. A DEEP MIXED LAYER
WILL EVOLVE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 40
MPH...OR REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM...
OUR FIRST GOOD SHOT OF AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NOW PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY...LEADING TO FURTHER COOLING OF
THE LOW/MID LEVELS...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 993-995 MB OVER
ONTARIO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ABSORB EARL OVER QUEBEC DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...PER 00Z
GFS/12Z EUROPEAN.
TONIGHT WILL BE WINDY...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z NAM...NOT WORTHY OF A
WIND ADVISORY AS 925-850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS.
EVEN THE STRONGER GFS IS ONLY INDICATING ABOUT A 9 MB DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE RISE/FALL 6 HR PRESSURE COUPLET WHICH TRACKS ACROSS.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY...BUT EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
MODERATION TO THE AIRMASS WITH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE LOWER 70S. MAXES IN THE LOW/MID 60S IS A NICE BLEND
BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM/COLDER GFS...850 MB TEMPS AROUND 4 C.
THE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPES UP TO 100 J/KG WITH THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DIURNAL SCATTER LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB REGION WITH ENHANCEMENT OFF
SAGINAW BAY.
MID 40S IS THE COLDEST I CAN SEE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOME CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS MAY NOT TOTALLY DIE OFF EITHER.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW AND LOW LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW ON SUNDAY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPERATURES
RESPONDING INTO THE LOWER 70S...IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.
THE 00Z EUROPEAN/GFS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIFTING
A WARM FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
RISING INTO THE UPPER TEENS...AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
THE TIMING OF THE THERMAL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...OR ELSE
WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP INHERITED TEMPERATURES FURTHER. IF THE COLD
FRONT IS ABLE TO SLOW DOWN...MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C (CAP) AND A VERY NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT READY TO
INTRODUCE POPS YET FOR TUESDAY.
MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL BRING AN INITIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE LAKE HURON
NEARSHORES BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD IN
A STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR BY TONIGHT. THE INCREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
GALES OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKES ST CLAIR AND ERIE THROUGH
THIS TIME. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DEGREASE ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8
PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
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