802 
FXUS62 KMHX 031207
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
807 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE EARL WILL PASS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING AND
ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE AT 550 AM FRIDAY...UPDATE TO REMOVE ONSLOW COUNTY FROM THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TO REMOVE WASHINGTON COUNTY FROM THE
HURRICANE WARNING. ALSO LOWERED POPS IN SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE EARL CIRCULATING ABOUT 90
MILES ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS...ASSOCIATED BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE OUTER BANKS WITH RAIN
BANDS EXTENDING INLAND AS FAR AS PITT COUNTY. WESTERN EDGE OF
PRECIP IS QUICKLY ERODING AWAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND WILL
LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS THRU THE MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. AS THE
HURRICANE ACCERLATES AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ENSUE WITH STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF ONCOMING
COLD FRONT. MAX TEMPS INLAND SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE OVER THE OUTER BANKS
AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS AS CLOUDS/RAIN FROM EARL WILL LINGER TO
ABOUT MIDDAY OR SO WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN TEMP RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
BE DRY. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS DEWPOINTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS
EVEN MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S OVER FAR INLAND AREAS. WILL ALSO SEE
PLEASANT NIGHTTIME LOWS WITH FALL-LIKE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...FOCUSED ON NEAR/SHORT TERM AND BASICALLY
USED ALL HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. OVERALL LOOKS QUIET WITH
HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT KEEPING REGION DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING
BACK UP TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HURRICANE EARL CURRENTLY OFFSHORE AND ESE OF CAPE
HATTERAS....WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CURRENTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF
IFR...THROUGH 10-11Z. VFR WILL RETURN LATE THIS MORNING AS PRECIP
SHIELD ASSOC WITH EARL LIFTS NE.

EXPECT GENERALLY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SAT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 8 AM...HAVE DROPPED GALES AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
HURRICANE EARL LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AS OF 430 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS APPROXIMATELY 75
MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS AND WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE OF THE REGION
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG TROP STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BUT BY MID MORNING EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROX 150 MI E OF THE
NC/VA BORDER WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE WATERS
AND BY MID AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOB 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KT. SEAS PEAKED AT 28 FT AT DIAMOND BUOY AT 2 AM BUT
HAS SINCE DROPPED TO 23 FT. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 20 FT POSSIBLE N OF
CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN EXPECT TO DROP TO 5 TO 8 FT
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE W TO NW SAT AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH
SEAS FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 6 FT SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE N WILL PRODUCE MAINLY NE TO OCNL E WINDS SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 15 KTS. SEAS SHLD DROP TO 2 TO 4
FEET FROM SUNDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HURRICANE WARNING FOR NCZ046-047-080-081-093>095-103-104. 
MARINE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156. 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SK