241 
FXUS62 KMHX 150715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT MON MAR 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND STACKED LOW OFF MID ATLC COAST
WILL DROP THRU EASTERN NC THIS AFTN. ASSOCD FORCING AND BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREAS.
CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS SOMEWHAT AND HAVE LEANED TO
COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHERN OBX TO LOWER 60S FAR SW AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN CHANCES LINGER INTO THE OVRNGT BUT WILL BE WANING WITH
DAYTIME HEAT LOSS AND AS SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFFSHORE. AGAIN MAIN
PCPN CHCS SHUD BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
ATTENDANT UPPER LOW. THERMAL TROF PLUNGING SOUTH ACRS THE AREA
TNGT BEHIND THE DEPARTING DEEP LOW...BUT MIXED LOWER ATMOS WILL
HELP HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW RESIDUAL/THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING UNDER DEVELOPING UPPER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE ON TUE GIVEN THE LIMITED SUNSHINE AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS TROF WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S FOR OBX AND
LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. 

UNSEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODE ALLOWING
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR LATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WILL BE COMMON WITH LOWER 40S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE GULF COAST AND TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DROPPING THRU THE HEARTLAND PHASE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH WED-THU. LOW PRES SPIN UP OFF THE SE COAST AND MAY
GRAZE ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS WITH CLOUDS AND LOW PCPN CHCS WED
NIGHT-EARLY FRI. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO ABV NORMAL READINGS
DURING THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS THRU THE AREA.
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE RETURN OF PCPN CHANCES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL HOVERING AROUND
NJ TO OUR N...WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7-9K FT. LATER AS A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW PASSES CLOSE BY...CIGS COULD
DROP TO 4K FT...THOUGH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN E OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES.

OUTLOOK...
THE LOW WILL SLIDE FURTHER S AND E TONIGHT...WITH INCREASE IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLOUDY. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINANT. 

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 230 AM...WINDS SHIFTING FROM W TO NW THIS MORNING...AND THEN
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW OFF THE NJ COAST
INTENSIFIES AND SINKS S. THE PRES GRAD WITH BE STRONGEST TO OUR
N...BUT WILL SEE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 KT FROM HATTERAS N
OVERNIGHT. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SOME IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND
WILL FALL ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE INCREASING WITH SCA WINDS
TONIGHT. THE SE SWELL IS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH...BUT STILL
DETECTING SEAS OVER DIAMOND SHOALS AND OFF DUCK AROUND 7 FT. WITH
WINDS PEAKING TONIGHT WILL SEE SEAS BUILD BACK TO AROUND 10 FT
FROM THE DIAMOND SHOALS N...AND 5 TO 8 FT S. BY TUESDAY EVENING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE LOW PUSHES E AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AS STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS TO OUR N SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER THE OBX REGION. THIS
N/NE SWELL WILL HOLD SEAS AROUND 7 TO 10 FT INTO WED...WHICH WILL
BRING WITH IT HIGH SURF. RIGHT NOW BEST ESTIMATES ON TIMING OF 8
FT BREAKERS ALONG N OBX WON'T BE UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL LAST INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE
PARENT LOW MOVES OVER THE N ATLANTIC. FORTUNATELY WE ARE NOT IN
ANY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE CYCLES BECAUSE EXTRA TROPICAL STORM SURGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS WATER LEVELS BUILDING A FEW FEET...BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. 

A WEAK COASTAL LOW IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON WED
NT/THU...BUT AT THIS TIME DON'T SEE NOTABLE IMPACTS TO MARINE
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN WIND DIRECTIONAL CHANGE. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT 
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT 
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC/CQD
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ