746 
FXUS61 KPHI 030940
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
540 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE EARL CENTERED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
TODAY WILL MOVE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTAL AREAS. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HURRICANE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED PUBLIC/WARNING PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM
OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES. LITTLE ELSE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FCST. 

EARL HAS ARRIVED FOR THE NEAR TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. THE TRACK
OF THE STORM HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL RECENTLY...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. EARL WILL TRACK EAST OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE COAST. ALL NHC WARNINGS/WATCHES REMAIN IN PLACE AS
BEFORE FOR TODAY. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS CONTAINED IN THE HLS
PRODUCT WHICH WILL BE UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS TODAY. RAINFALL WILL
BE RESTRICTED TO DELAWARE AND NJ WITH PERHAPS A CHC FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN ERN PA TOO. QPF PROBABLY AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ALONG
THE SHORE AREAS. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE SHORE
STEPPING DOWN AS YOU GO INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARL WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CLOUDS AND
RAINS SHOULD END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON (SOUTH) AND THIS
EVENING (NORTH). A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH (THE ONE THAT STEERED
EARL OUT TO SEA) WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SAT AND
SUN WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE AND GUSTY SAT BEHIND EARL WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED 
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE LOCATED 
OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE 
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR EAST AND THE RIDGE 
BUILDING TOWARD OUR REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE 
ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER 
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE EASTERN 
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND FROM 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST 
MAY ARRIVE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 
BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A 
RESULT, WE HAVE CARRIED LITTLE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER COOL, WITH OVERNIGHT LOW 
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AND 
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. 
THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO WARM EFFICIENTLY FOR TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE NEAR 90 DEGREES 
BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AT LOCATIONS NEAR THE 
COAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY ON THURSDAY SHOULD CAUSE 
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HURRICANE EARL WILL PASS WELL EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE MAINLY MAINTAIN STATUS QUO ON THE 
TAFS. WE START WITH SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TWO 
NORTHWESTERN SITES IN LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. AFTER THAT, WE KEEP 
ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT THE TWO SOUTHEASTERN 
SITES, WHERE WE BRING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING INTO THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. WE HAVE 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR A WHILE TODAY 
SOUTHEAST, AND WE HAVE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SAME DIRECTION 
OVER THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES. TONIGHT, EVERYBODY GOES TO VFR ON A 
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. 
 
OUTLOOK...
GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY 
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS 
DUE TO FOG OR HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE EARL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN FOR 
ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND THE SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY /IT MAY START A LITTLE 
EARLY/. SEAS ARE COMMENSURATE WITH THE WINDS AND WITH WHAT WE ARE 
OBSERVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. 

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY IN THE WAKE OF 
EARL. THE GRADIENT NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND EARL AND AN APPROACHING 
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO 
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN SIDE. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER, 
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA. 

MARINERS AND PEOPLE WHO HAVE PLANS TO GO OUT TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAREFULLY. PLEASE 
SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH 
OF EARL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A ONE TIDE CYCLE EVENT WITH EARL. THE HIGH TIDE 
IN QUESTION OCCURS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUR LOCAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 
MAINLY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WE ARE CALLING FOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE 
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE NORTHERN MARYLAND 
EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY, WHERE THE HIGH TIDE OCCURS MAINLY 
THIS EVENING /LATER OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR EASTERN SHORE 
COUNTIES/. OF COURSE, ANY SHIFT TO THE WEST WOULD INCREASE THE
TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURF 
FORECAST HAS BEEN SUSPENDED UNTIL ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS 
ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE DROPPED, AND RIP CURRENT INFORMATION CAN BE 
FOUND IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NJZ013-014-020-022>027. 
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NJZ012. 
DE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DEZ003-004. 
MD...NONE.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ431-450>455. 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O'HARA
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI