856 
FXUS64 KOHX 140131
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
731 PM CST SAT MAR 13 2010

.EVENING DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER NE GA AT THIS TIME. GOOD CURVATURE AND SHEAR 
EXTENDING NW OF THE CENTER. THUS...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES STILL 
EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 

CURRENTLY...SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN 
THE 40S. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS 
SOUTHERN IL AND IS HEADING OUR WAY. 

FOR THE FCST...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOSED UL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. DEEP LL/ML MOISTURE WILL REMAIN 
ACROSS THE REGION ON BACK SIDE. THUS EXPECT WEATHER TO CHANGE
LITTLE THIS FCST PERIOD. MVFR CEILING/VSBYS...BRIEFLY IFR CSV
...WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST SAT MAR 13 2010/ 

SHORT TERM...(THRU TUE)
CURRENT...ANOMALOUS COLD CORE LOW CENTERED AROUND CHA. THIS
INSTABILITY IS BEING ASSISTED BY H5 IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND TROF
TO SET OFF SCT-NMRS -SHRA TDA. TEMPS IN MID 40S FOR MOST PART.

ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ROTATE THRU FROM NW LATE TONITE WITH BEST
POPS NW PORTIONS...AND THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS SUN WITH
LIKELY POPS EXCEPT W. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MON AND TUE AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLD -SHRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
LOOKS LIKE NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE INTO TUE.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD CORE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN WED INTO THU BUT THIS ONE NOT
AS STRONG...20-30% POPS WILL SUFFICE. FINALLY SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
BY FRI...AND A GOOD FRONT PROGGED TO BE AROUND ON SAT...WENT WITH 
FASTER GFS TIMING ON THIS FRONT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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