416 
FXUS61 KRNK 110429
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1229 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC 
THIS MORNING AS THE LONGWAVE UPR PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND HEIGHTS
RISE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING WEST ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
AT THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE 
NORTH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HWY 460. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG. FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING AND
PRIMARILY IN RIVER VALLEYS OF THE GREENBRIER AND NEW. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW MAJORITY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
STAYING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SRN FA SAT MORNING...THEN THIN IT OUT DURING THE DAY. 
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTS HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW MAV MOS ESPCLY
SOUTH SAT SO LOWERED A LITTLE ACROSS THE BOARD.

ONCE THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY PASSES INLAND BY SAT NIGHT...SHOULD 
FINALLY SEE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SW INTO THE REGION 
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS SUPPORTS A COOL SAT NIGHT 
WITH LOWS 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH EVEN A FEW 30S IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK TEMP REBOUND BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S SUNDAY OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
THE SW. RIDGE STAYS STRONG THROUGH MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD. RECORD HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT BE
REACHED...ALTHOUGH BLF COULD GET CLOSE WITH ITS RECORD BEING ONLY
81...AND THE FORECAST IS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STAY IN PLACE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BREAKDOWN
MIDWEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHILE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY OVER
NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD US WED-
THU WITH THE RIDGE BEING SURPRESSED SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISS VALLEY STALLS THE
FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY-MID ATLANTIC INTO THU NIGHT...SO ONLY
KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST THU-THU NIGHT. THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY PER 00Z ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH FLOW REMAINS MORE IN THE DRY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

PATTERN LOOKS TO BE CHANGING BACK TO A TROUGH IN THE EAST NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SC COAST WILL DRIFT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE 
ACROSS GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS THIS MORNING. 
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR VIS THIS MORNING AT KLWB...WITH QUICK 
IMPROVEMENTS AFTER SUNRISE. PERSISTENT CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 
KDAN MAY ALLOW FOG/IFR VIS TO FORM THIS MORNING. CLDS MAY ALSO 
PERSIST AROUND 4KFT AT KDAN THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU
THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG ALONG AREA RIVERS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING MVFR SHOWERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS 
MIDWEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS/JS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/KM